{"note":"The atlas's own library of instability MECHANISMS - causes of a kind, argued in the comparative literature and never about any one event. Each carries its sources, the claim in one sentence, and a SIGNATURE written in predicates the atlas can evaluate for any state and year from what it already holds. build_mechanisms.py evaluates every signature over every outcome event and over sampled polity-years, and writes fits, base rates with their denominators, and near-misses. A fit is a HYPOTHESIS: the conditions the theory names were present here. It is never a claim that the theory explains this event, and the file says so in every record. docs/CAUSALITY.md is the design.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 - derived in part from V-Dem v16; the other inputs are CC0, CC BY 4.0 or public domain","predicates":{"prior":"an atlas row of the given categories, hosted by the state (scope host) or within `km` of the point (scope near), beginning in [t - years, t - minLag]; never the outcome itself, nor anything recorded as part of it or as what it is part of","recurrence":"as prior, with the lag confined to [lo, hi] years before t","warOngoing":"a war hosted by the state, or with the state as a recorded participant, that began before t and had not ended at t; a 'war' longer than fifty years is a series under one name and is not counted","warEnded":"such a war whose end falls in [t - years, t)","handovers":"at least `min` changes of ruler in the state's succession line within [t - years, t]","rivalClaimants":"a handover with a NEGATIVE gap - an overlapping reign - within [t - years, t]","interregnum":"a handover with a gap of at least `min` years within [t - years, t]","shortReigns":"at least `min` reigns of two years or less within [t - years, t]","volcanic":"a stratospheric sulfur injection of at least `tg` Tg (eVolv2k / HolVol) in [t - years, t - minLag]; a GLOBAL measurement","drought":"summer PDSI at or below `pdsi` in the point's 5-degree OWDA cell in any year of [t - years, t]; Europe and the Mediterranean, 0-2012 only","gdpGrowth":"Maddison GDP per capita of the state's modern territory grew by at least `pct` percent over the `years` before t","popGrowth":"Maddison population of the state's modern territory grew by at least `pct` percent over the `years` before t","lowGdp":"Maddison GDP per capita at t in the bottom tercile of every country with a reading that year","powerShift":"V-Dem: some dimension of the chief executive's power base moved by at least `delta` between t - years and t","coup":"a coup attempt (Powell & Thyne, via V-Dem) in [t - years, t]","newState":"the state was founded within `years` of t","ageBand":"the state's age at t is within [lo, hi] years","deposed":"a monarch of the state's line deposed or killed in [t - years, t - 1], as Kokkonen & Sundell code it by hand for 27 European monarchies, 1000-1799 (a death on campaign in a civil war counts); `cannot` for any other state or year, never a miss","civilWar":"a civil war or rebellion in the state's line whose onset falls in [t - years, t - 1], from the same dataset (Kokkonen & Sundell 2020, after Kohn, Phillips & Axelrod, Dupuy, Luard and Clodfelter); `cannot` outside its 27 lines and 1000-1799","territoryChange":"the state's Cliopatria area changed by at least `pct` percent - `dir` shrank or grew - between t - `lag` - `years` and t - `lag`; `cannot` where Cliopatria draws no polygon for the state in either year. The lag keeps the state's own dissolution out of the reading."},"method":{"sampleStep":5,"legible":"a polity-year counts only where the atlas holds at least 3 events for that state within 100 years of it","standingEnd":2000,"rates":"[with condition, of those followed by an outcome, without condition, of those followed] over sampled polity-years; `cannot` could not be decided, `illegible` were not counted at all","density":"byDensity bands a rate by how many hosted events the record holds within 100 years of the sample - a lift that survives inside a band is a lift; one that does not is the record","generated":"2026-10-06"},"mechanisms":[{"id":"demographic-structural","name":"Demographic-structural breakdown","short":"Population pressure, elite competition and fiscal strain coincide","signatureNote":"at least two of: famine, plague or disaster within 30 y, or population +25% over 50 y · rival claimants, three handovers, two short reigns or a deposed monarch within 20 y · a war ongoing, or ended within 10 y","claim":"When population growth outruns what the land and the treasury can carry, prices rise, the state's finances fail, more elite aspirants compete for a fixed number of positions, and a mobilisable mass appears; where fiscal distress, elite competition and mass mobilisation potential coincide, the state breaks down.","sources":[{"author":"Jack A. Goldstone","year":1991,"title":"Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World","where":"University of California Press","says":"The Political Stress Indicator - state fiscal distress x elite mobilisation potential x mass mobilisation potential - peaks before the English Revolution of 1640, the French Revolution of 1789, the Ottoman crisis of the 1590s and the fall of the Ming in 1644."},{"author":"Peter Turchin and Sergey A. Nefedov","year":2009,"title":"Secular Cycles","where":"Princeton University Press","says":"Formalises the same mechanism as a multi-century cycle - expansion, stagflation, crisis, depression - and traces it through medieval and early modern England, France, Rome and Russia."}],"cases":["English Revolution (1640)","French Revolution (1789)","Celali revolts in the Ottoman Empire (1590s)","Fall of the Ming (1644)"],"against":"Goldstone's evidence is early modern (1500-1850) and rests on price, wage and population series the atlas does not hold for most of its span. The proxies used here - famine, plague or disaster for mass pressure; succession strife for elite competition; war for fiscal strain - are stand-ins the theory would call coarse, and where Maddison population exists it is the population of a modern territory.","scope":{"periods":"all; population growth only where Maddison reaches","polities":"agrarian states above all"},"outcomes":{"cats":["unrest","regime_change"],"polityEnd":true},"window":30,"forward":15,"signature":{"atLeast":2,"of":[{"label":"mass pressure","any":[{"prior":{"cats":["famine","plague","disaster"],"years":30,"scope":"host"}},{"popGrowth":{"pct":25,"years":50}}]},{"label":"elite competition","any":[{"rivalClaimants":{"years":20}},{"handovers":{"years":20,"min":3}},{"shortReigns":{"years":20,"min":2}},{"deposed":{"years":20}}]},{"label":"fiscal strain","any":[{"warOngoing":{}},{"warEnded":{"years":10}}]}]},"stats":{"outcomes":{"miss":490,"hit":459,"cannot":142,"end:hit":55,"end:miss":2790,"end:cannot":72}}},{"id":"fathers-and-sons","name":"Fathers-and-sons cycle","short":"Violence recurs two generations after the last wave","signatureNote":"instability in the same state 40 to 60 years before; the control is the same at 15 to 35","claim":"Waves of internal violence recur at roughly two-generation intervals: the generation that lived through a wave of violence is reluctant to repeat it, and its children, who did not, are not.","sources":[{"author":"Peter Turchin","year":2003,"title":"Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall","where":"Princeton University Press","says":"Introduces the ~50-year 'fathers-and-sons' cycle of internal warfare superimposed on the longer secular cycle."},{"author":"Peter Turchin","year":2016,"title":"Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History","where":"Beresta Books","says":"Finds the two-generation rhythm in the United States' record of political violence: peaks around 1870, 1920 and 1970."},{"author":"Peter Turchin and Sergey A. Nefedov","year":2009,"title":"Secular Cycles","where":"Princeton University Press","says":"Reports the same rhythm inside the crisis phases of English, French and Roman secular cycles."}],"cases":["United States: 1870, 1920, 1970","France: 1789, 1830-1848, 1871"],"against":"A periodicity in a record of events can be a periodicity in the writing of the record. The control signature - the same instability one generation earlier - is what separates the two; a mechanism that fits at 15-35 years as well as at 40-60 is not the one Turchin describes.","scope":{"periods":"all","polities":"any state with hosted instability rows"},"outcomes":{"cats":["unrest","regime_change","atrocity"],"polityEnd":false},"window":60,"forward":10,"signature":{"recurrence":{"cats":["unrest","regime_change","atrocity"],"lo":40,"hi":60,"scope":"host"}},"control":{"recurrence":{"cats":["unrest","regime_change","atrocity"],"lo":15,"hi":35,"scope":"host"}},"controlNote":"the same instability one generation earlier, 15 to 35 years before","stats":{"outcomes":{"cannot":147,"miss":1160,"hit":512}}},{"id":"secular-cycle","name":"Dynastic cycle and the decay of group feeling","short":"A state three to four generations old is the one that falls","signatureNote":"the state is 90 to 160 years old; the control is a state under 60","claim":"A ruling group's cohesion - Ibn Khaldun's asabiyya - decays over about three generations as the dynasty grows accustomed to luxury and extraction; at roughly a hundred and twenty years the state is at its weakest and falls to a fresher group from its periphery.","sources":[{"author":"Ibn Khaldun","year":1377,"title":"Muqaddimah (trans. Franz Rosenthal, 1958)","where":"Princeton University Press / Bollingen","says":"'The life of a dynasty does not as a rule extend beyond three generations' - each of about forty years - as group feeling weakens from the founders to the imitators to the heirs who take it all for granted."},{"author":"Peter Turchin and Sergey A. Nefedov","year":2009,"title":"Secular Cycles","where":"Princeton University Press","says":"Credits Ibn Khaldun as the first structural-demographic theorist and finds two-to-three-century cycles in agrarian states."}],"cases":["Almoravids and Almohads in the Maghreb","Umayyad and Abbasid succession","Turchin's English and French cycles"],"against":"Ibn Khaldun wrote about the tribal dynasties of the medieval Maghreb, and his 'generation' is a social rather than a demographic unit. The atlas's polity dates are Wikidata's and often mark a name rather than a regime, so a state that changed dynasties twice under one name reads as one long life.","scope":{"periods":"all","polities":"every dated polity"},"outcomes":{"cats":["regime_change"],"polityEnd":true},"window":160,"forward":25,"signature":{"ageBand":{"lo":90,"hi":160}},"control":{"ageBand":{"lo":0,"hi":60}},"controlNote":"a state under sixty years old","stats":{"outcomes":{"miss":140,"hit":11,"cannot":10,"end:miss":2548,"end:hit":369}}},{"id":"modernization-gap","name":"Modernisation outrunning institutions","short":"Rapid growth with weak institutions breeds disorder","signatureNote":"GDP per capita +50% over 20 y, and the power base shifted by 0.3 over 20 y or a coup within 10 y — 1789 on, where V-Dem and Maddison reach","claim":"Rapid economic and social mobilisation raises demands on politics faster than political institutions can absorb them; where institutions are weak or in flux, modernisation produces instability - 'modernity breeds stability, but modernization breeds instability'.","sources":[{"author":"Samuel P. Huntington","year":1968,"title":"Political Order in Changing Societies","where":"Yale University Press","says":"The gap between social mobilisation and political institutionalisation is the source of political decay; praetorian societies with rapid change and weak institutions see coups, revolts and revolutions."}],"cases":["Latin American praetorianism of the 1950s-1960s","Iran (1979) as read by later commentators","the post-colonial coups of the 1960s"],"against":"Huntington's institutionalisation is adaptability, complexity, autonomy and coherence; the atlas can see only V-Dem's power base moving or a coup having happened, which is a coarse reading of it. Przeworski and Limongi (1997) showed that growth does not on its own destabilise; and the mechanism can be tested here only from 1789, where V-Dem begins, and where Maddison has readings.","scope":{"periods":"1789 onwards, and only where V-Dem and Maddison cover the host","polities":"modern states"},"outcomes":{"cats":["unrest","regime_change"],"polityEnd":false},"window":20,"forward":10,"signature":{"all":[{"label":"rapid modernisation","gdpGrowth":{"pct":50,"years":20}},{"label":"institutions weak or in flux","any":[{"powerShift":{"delta":0.3,"years":20}},{"coup":{"years":10}}]}]},"stats":{"outcomes":{"cannot":600,"miss":358,"hit":133}}},{"id":"war-and-revolution","name":"War, state crisis and revolution","short":"A state exhausted by war breaks from the top","signatureNote":"a war the state fought ended within 10 y, or is still running","claim":"Social revolutions follow crises of the state produced by international military pressure - defeat, or a war the treasury cannot pay for - that an agrarian bureaucracy cannot meet without turning on its own landed elite; the state cracks from above before the crowd moves below.","sources":[{"author":"Theda Skocpol","year":1979,"title":"States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia and China","where":"Cambridge University Press","says":"France after the Seven Years' War and the American war, Russia after 1905 and 1917, China after 1895: the state crisis that opened each revolution was made abroad."},{"author":"Charles Tilly","year":1990,"title":"Coercion, Capital, and European States, AD 990-1990","where":"Blackwell","says":"War made the state and the state made war; the fiscal demands of war are the recurring occasion of bargaining, resistance and breakdown."}],"cases":["French Revolution (1789)","Russian Revolution (1917)","Xinhai Revolution (1911)","Paris Commune (1871)"],"against":"The atlas records that a war ended and not who won, so a victory - Britain in 1815 - counts as exposure here exactly as a defeat does; the comparison therefore understates Skocpol's mechanism rather than proving it. Her cases are three, chosen for the outcome, which is the classic objection to the method. A war still running counts too, because Russia's was: the strain is the war, not its end.","scope":{"periods":"all","polities":"states with a recorded war participation or a hosted war; a 'war' longer than fifty years is a series and is not counted"},"outcomes":{"cats":["regime_change","unrest"],"polityEnd":false},"window":10,"forward":5,"signature":{"any":[{"warEnded":{"years":10}},{"warOngoing":{}}]},"stats":{"outcomes":{"hit":508,"miss":463,"cannot":120}}},{"id":"multiple-sovereignty","name":"Multiple sovereignty","short":"Two claimants to one throne is a civil war with a calendar","signatureNote":"an overlapping reign, an empty throne, or the onset of a civil war, within 5 y","claim":"A revolutionary situation exists when two or more blocs make effective, incompatible claims to control the state; in a succession record that situation is an overlapping reign - rival claimants - or an empty throne.","sources":[{"author":"Charles Tilly","year":1978,"title":"From Mobilization to Revolution","where":"Addison-Wesley","says":"Defines the revolutionary situation as multiple sovereignty and the revolutionary outcome as the transfer of power, and separates the two so that a situation can exist without an outcome."}],"cases":["The Anarchy (1135-1153)","Year of the Four Emperors (69)","Wars of the Roses","the Ottoman interregnum (1402-1413)"],"against":"An overlap in the atlas's succession line is also what a collegial office or a co-regency looks like - the Swiss Federal Council reads as permanent rival claimants - and a gap can be a record that lost the thread rather than an interregnum. Exposure above the atlas's own limit is withheld for that reason in the succession section, and the same caveat applies here.","scope":{"periods":"all","polities":"the 479 states with a dated succession line"},"outcomes":{"cats":["war","unrest","regime_change"],"polityEnd":false},"window":5,"forward":5,"signature":{"any":[{"rivalClaimants":{"years":5}},{"interregnum":{"years":5,"min":1}},{"civilWar":{"years":5}}]},"stats":{"outcomes":{"cannot":597,"miss":1635,"hit":222}}},{"id":"plague-and-revolt","name":"Plague, labour and revolt","short":"A generation after the plague, the survivors rise","signatureNote":"plague in the state, or within 500 km, within 40 y","claim":"The demographic shock of plague raises the price of labour; lords and crowns that try to hold wages and dues at their old level turn a labour market into a political grievance, and a generation later the survivors rise.","sources":[{"author":"Rodney Hilton","year":1973,"title":"Bond Men Made Free: Medieval Peasant Movements and the English Rising of 1381","where":"Temple Smith","says":"The Statute of Labourers (1351) and the poll taxes turned the post-plague bargaining power of English peasants into the rising of 1381."},{"author":"Samuel K. Cohn","year":2006,"title":"Lust for Liberty: The Politics of Social Revolt in Medieval Europe, 1200-1425","where":"Harvard University Press","says":"Catalogues over a thousand revolts and finds their peak in the two generations after the Black Death - while arguing they were political in aim rather than economic in cause."}],"cases":["Jacquerie (1358)","Revolt of the Ciompi (1378)","Peasants' Revolt (1381)","Catalan remensa revolts (1462-1486)"],"against":"Cohn's own reading is the objection: the revolts after 1348 asked for liberties, not wages, and many places the plague struck saw no rising at all. The atlas cannot see wages, prices or the statutes that answered them, so the fit here is plague-then-rising and nothing finer.","scope":{"periods":"all; the literature is medieval European","polities":"any"},"outcomes":{"cats":["unrest"],"polityEnd":false},"window":40,"forward":40,"signature":{"any":[{"prior":{"cats":["plague"],"years":40,"scope":"host"}},{"prior":{"cats":["plague"],"years":40,"scope":"near","km":500}}]},"stats":{"outcomes":{"miss":656,"hit":165,"cannot":109}}},{"id":"climate-shock","name":"Climate shock, harvest and unrest","short":"A volcanic veil or a failed summer, then famine, then revolt","signatureNote":"at least 5 Tg of sulfur 1 to 5 y before, or a summer PDSI at or below −3 within 3 y","claim":"A stratospheric aerosol veil or a run of failed summers cuts the harvest; within a few years shortage becomes famine, and famine becomes revolt or war wherever the state cannot or will not buffer it.","sources":[{"author":"Joseph G. Manning et al.","year":2017,"title":"Volcanic suppression of Nile summer flooding triggers revolt and constrains interstate conflict in ancient Egypt","where":"Nature Communications 8: 900","says":"Dated eruptions in the ice cores precede the onset of Ptolemaic revolts and the ends of Ptolemaic wars, through suppressed Nile flooding."},{"author":"Ulf Büntgen et al.","year":2016,"title":"Cooling and societal change during the Late Antique Little Ice Age from 536 to around 660 AD","where":"Nature Geoscience 9: 231-236","says":"Three eruptions in 536, 540 and 547 opened a century of cooling that coincides with the Justinianic plague, the transformation of the eastern Roman Empire and the movements of peoples across Eurasia."},{"author":"Geoffrey Parker","year":2013,"title":"Global Crisis: War, Climate Change and Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century","where":"Yale University Press","says":"The Little Ice Age's coldest decades coincide with the mid-seventeenth-century wave of revolts, civil wars and state collapses from England to the Ming."},{"author":"Bruce M. S. Campbell","year":2016,"title":"The Great Transition: Climate, Disease and Society in the Late-Medieval World","where":"Cambridge University Press","says":"The fourteenth-century crisis was set in motion by climate and disease acting on a full landscape, not by any social cause alone."}],"cases":["Ptolemaic revolts (245, 207, 168 BCE)","the crisis of 536-547","the Great Famine (1315-1317)","the 1640s across Eurasia","1816, the year without a summer"],"against":"A dry summer explains nothing on its own, and the same veil fell on states that did not revolt: the near-misses are the argument. The drought atlas covers Europe and the Mediterranean from the year 0 and nothing else; the ice-core record is global and says nothing about where the harvest failed.","scope":{"periods":"eVolv2k: all, globally; OWDA: 0-2012, Europe and the Mediterranean","polities":"any"},"outcomes":{"cats":["famine","unrest","regime_change"],"polityEnd":false},"window":5,"forward":5,"signature":{"any":[{"volcanic":{"tg":5,"years":5,"minLag":1}},{"drought":{"pdsi":-3,"years":3}}]},"stats":{"outcomes":{"miss":954,"hit":178}}},{"id":"state-weakness","name":"State weakness and insurgency","short":"A new, poor or shaken state is the one insurgents can fight","signatureNote":"founded within 2 y, or a regime change within 3 y, or GDP per capita in the bottom third that year","claim":"Civil war onset is predicted by the conditions that favour insurgency - a state that is poor, newly formed or politically unstable, and terrain it cannot police - far more than by ethnic or religious grievance.","sources":[{"author":"James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin","year":2003,"title":"Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War","where":"American Political Science Review 97(1): 75-90","says":"Across 1945-1999, per capita income, new statehood, political instability and mountainous terrain predict civil war onset; ethnic and religious diversity do not."}],"cases":["Post-colonial Africa in the 1960s","the successor states of the Soviet Union","Congo (1960)"],"against":"Fearon and Laitin's outcome is civil war, and the atlas's nearest thing is a war hosted by the state or an unrest row, which includes wars fought on its soil by others. Collier and Hoeffler read the same correlations as opportunity for rebellion; Cederman and others have restored grievance to the account. Income is measurable only where Maddison reaches.","scope":{"periods":"all for new statehood and instability; income only where Maddison reaches","polities":"any"},"outcomes":{"cats":["war","unrest"],"polityEnd":false},"window":3,"forward":5,"signature":{"any":[{"newState":{"years":2}},{"prior":{"cats":["regime_change"],"years":3,"scope":"host"}},{"lowGdp":{"tercile":1}}]},"stats":{"outcomes":{"cannot":435,"miss":1480,"hit":378}}},{"id":"conflict-trap","name":"The conflict trap","short":"A war within the last decade is the best predictor of the next","signatureNote":"a war ended, or an earlier rising, within 10 y","claim":"A state that has just had a war faces a much higher risk of another within a decade: war lowers income, leaves armed men and unpaid grievances, and a settlement rarely resolves the contest that produced it.","sources":[{"author":"Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler","year":2004,"title":"Greed and Grievance in Civil War","where":"Oxford Economic Papers 56(4): 563-595","says":"The risk of civil war is highest in countries that have recently had one; time since the last conflict is among the strongest predictors of onset."},{"author":"Barbara F. Walter","year":2004,"title":"Does Conflict Beget Conflict? Explaining Recurring Civil War","where":"Journal of Peace Research 41(3): 371-388","says":"Recurrence follows from the conditions of individual life after war - poverty and closed politics - more than from the terms of the settlement."},{"author":"Paul Collier","year":2007,"title":"The Bottom Billion","where":"Oxford University Press","says":"Names the pattern the conflict trap: about half of post-conflict countries relapse within a decade."}],"cases":["Angola after 1991","Congo after 1997","Afghanistan after 1992"],"against":"Measured on a record whose wars are Wikidata's, a war that recurs is also a war somebody kept writing about. The literature is post-1945; before that the same rule would describe the Hundred Years' War as a hundred years of conflict trap, which is a fact about names.","scope":{"periods":"all; the literature is post-1945","polities":"any"},"outcomes":{"cats":["war","unrest"],"polityEnd":false},"window":10,"forward":10,"signature":{"any":[{"warEnded":{"years":10}},{"prior":{"cats":["unrest"],"years":10,"scope":"host","minLag":1}}]},"stats":{"outcomes":{"cannot":435,"hit":955,"miss":903}}},{"id":"challenge-and-response","name":"Challenge, failed response and dissolution","short":"A state that has stopped answering its challenges contracts, splits within and is pressed from outside","signatureNote":"territory shrank by a quarter over the century that ended 25 y before the end; and, for the internal proletariat, a rising, regime change or massacre within 100 y, or, for the external, a war under way or ended within 50 y, or a battle on its ground in the 50 y before the end","claim":"Civilisations grow while a creative minority meets each new challenge with a response the rest follow by mimesis. They break down when that minority, having failed a challenge, turns into a dominant minority holding power by force; disintegration then runs through a time of troubles and a universal state that contracts in routs and rallies until it dissolves between an internal proletariat that secedes from it and an external proletariat pressing on its frontier.","sources":[{"author":"Arnold J. Toynbee","year":1934,"title":"A Study of History, vols. I-III (IV-VI 1939, VII-X 1954)","where":"Oxford University Press","says":"Twenty-one civilisations read through one pattern: genesis in challenge and response, breakdown when the creative minority fails and mimesis is lost, disintegration through a time of troubles and a universal state, with the internal and external proletariats as the agents of the end."},{"author":"Arnold J. Toynbee and D. C. Somervell","year":1946,"title":"A Study of History: Abridgement of Volumes I-VI","where":"Oxford University Press","says":"Gives disintegration its rhythm - rout, rally, rout, rally, rout, 'three and a half beats' - and traces it through the Hellenic universal state from the Peloponnesian War to the fall of the West."}],"cases":["the Roman Empire in the West (fifth century)","the Byzantine Empire (1453)","the Abbasid Caliphate (1258)","the Ming (1644)"],"against":"Historians rejected the scheme as a pattern imposed on the evidence: Pieter Geyl (1949) that it selects its cases and cannot be falsified, Hugh Trevor-Roper that it is prophecy dressed as history. Toynbee's unit is a civilisation, which the atlas does not hold; a state stands in for it, Cliopatria's traced borders stand in for his routs and rallies, and a rising or a war stands in for his proletariats. A state's territory also falls as it dissolves, so the contraction is read over the century that ended 25 years before the end - never over the end itself.","scope":{"periods":"all, wherever Cliopatria draws the state's borders","polities":"the 790 atlas states whose borders Cliopatria traces"},"outcomes":{"cats":[],"polityEnd":true},"window":125,"forward":50,"signature":{"all":[{"label":"rout","territoryChange":{"pct":25,"years":100,"lag":25,"dir":"shrank"}},{"label":"the proletariats","any":[{"prior":{"cats":["unrest","regime_change","atrocity"],"years":100,"scope":"host"}},{"warOngoing":{}},{"warEnded":{"years":50}},{"prior":{"cats":["battle"],"years":50,"scope":"host","minLag":1}}]}]},"control":{"territoryChange":{"pct":25,"years":100,"lag":25,"dir":"grew"}},"controlNote":"a state whose territory grew by a quarter over the same century","stats":{"outcomes":{"end:cannot":436,"end:miss":2460,"end:hit":21}}}],"fits":{"Q8690":[{"m":"demographic-structural","aspect":"onset","ev":[{"p":"prior","cat":"disaster","id":"Q4572485","year":1966,"lag":0,"scope":"host","part":"mass pressure"},{"p":"popGrowth","value":63,"year":1966,"lag":50,"part":"mass pressure"},{"p":"warOngoing","id":"Q8740","year":1955,"lag":11,"part":"fiscal strain"},{"p":"warEnded","id":"Q208694","year":1962,"lag":4,"part":"fiscal strain"}]},{"m":"war-and-revolution","aspect":"onset","ev":[{"p":"warEnded","id":"Q208694","year":1962,"lag":4},{"p":"warOngoing","id":"Q8740","year":1955,"lag":11}]},{"m":"climate-shock","aspect":"onset","ev":[{"p":"volcanic","value":7.69,"year":1963,"lag":3,"scope":"global"}]},{"m":"state-weakness","aspect":"onset","ev":[{"p":"lowGdp","value":1261,"year":1966}]},{"m":"conflict-trap","aspect":"onset","ev":[{"p":"warEnded","id":"Q208694","year":1962,"lag":4},{"p":"prior","cat":"unrest","id":"Q508258","year":1959,"lag":7,"scope":"host"}]}],"Q126065":[{"m":"demographic-structural","aspect":"onset","ev":[{"p":"prior","cat":"disaster","id":"Q2087165","year":1978,"lag":0,"scope":"host","part":"mass pressure"},{"p":"warEnded","id":"Q4116897","year":1975,"lag":3,"part":"fiscal 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